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Head to Head Bets: How They Work and When They Make Sense
Head to head bets are by far the easiest type of matchup market to understand. Bettors simply bet on who finishes ahead. This article will explain NZD decimal odds as used by most Kiwis and focus on the sports New Zealand is mostly interested in; rugby, cricket and netball. We will also explain the practical terms of draws, dead heats and promotions. These determine if a head to head market will pay out the way you expect.
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What Head to Head Bets Mean in Sports Betting
A head to head bet at NZ sportsbooks involves backing one competitor to finish ahead of another competitor. When relating to team sport, it's called a match winner market. In singles sports such as tennis or golf, this refers to player versus player. Head to head markets are very similar to what other exchanges call match betting or moneyline betting. The terminology varies depending on code and locality.
The difference isn't always the name, but how many outcomes there are. A two-way market only allows two selections and will pay out a level result based on some type of void/dead heat rule. A three-way market treats the draw as an outcome, which is typical of rugby and football markets. Always read the market rules before you back; two markets with identical names can pay out on a drawn result very differently.
How Head to Head Bets Work: Odds, Payouts and Settlement
In New Zealand, bookmakers generally present their prices aligned next to each other in decimal format. Keep in mind that decimal odds are presented with your stake included.
To work out your return, multiply your stake by the odds shown. To calculate the implied probability just take the inverse: odds of 2.00 imply 1/2 or 50 percent. Odds of 1.50 imply 2/3 or 66.7 percent (approximately). If you bet NZ$50 at odds of 1.80, you will get NZ$90 back, and this includes your stake. NZ$40 would be profit.
Settlement rules explain how these edge cases are resolved. Common rules are:
- If there is extra time, then full-time score is exempt unless covered by the market. So a knockout result happening after extra time may settle on the full time score.
- A push or void refunds stake when there is no definitive result for a market to settle.
- Dead heat reductions are taken when two selections tie, i.e. the payoff is split according to odds and stake.
- Should a nominated player fail to start, a player matchup wager would normally be voided and stake refunded.
Two-Way vs. Three-Way Markets: Why the Draw Changes Everything
One of the simplest yet widely underappreciated strategies when betting on sports is understanding how two-way markets differ from three-way markets. It’s the number of outcomes, rather than the sport you’re betting on, that affects how your stake is exposed.
Two-Way Market
A NZ$100 stake returns NZ$190 if your player wins. There's no draw option, so the market only has two possible results: your bet either wins or loses based on a binary outcome.
Three-Way Market
The draw is not a non-event. It is a standalone, selectable price. If you wager on the home team and the score is tied, you lose the wager. The draw is not a void or push, it is its own selection you did not choose.
The Real Variable is Structure, Not Sport
Any market that has a standalone draw price (most football & rugby markets) has the risk of lost wagers. Whereas sports that don't have a draw option (tennis, basketball in most bookies) naturally don't.
Practical Takeaway
Always check if you are comparing odds across sports whether the market is two-way or three-way. The seemingly "safer-looking" price in a three-way market may offer more downside than a shorter price in a two way market just because of the ways that you can lose.
Head to Head Markets by Sport in New Zealand
Head to head pricing varies by codes. Draws happen more frequently in some sports than others. Home advantage plays a bigger role in some sports than others. Player props exist in some codes and not others. All these differences mean that the same NZD stake isn't equally risky across sports.
NRL and Rugby Head to Head Bets
NRL matches are almost always offered as a two-way head to head, with a separate three-way market adding the draw at longer odds. At rugby betting sites in New Zealand, Super Rugby and rugby union test matches are more likely to list a three-way market by default, since while rare, tests can be drawn. Home advantage, rotation/squad depth, number of days rested and trans-Tasman travel between New Zealand and Australia all affect the line.
Cricket Head to Head Bets
Terms of settlement for cricket head to head bets will vary based on what format of the game is being played as well as specific wordings of the market. Head to head betting markets on limited-overs internationals and domestic T20s will typically void as a result of a tied match unless a super over is played determining the outcome and rules explicitly state that official result stands. Matches impacted by rain will settle on official result, so any DLS-adjusted result would be considered the settled result, rather than how the match stood prior to the intervention of rain. Cricket bets on individuals playing against one another (such as which of two top order batsmen will have most runs; which bowler will take most wickets etc.) will typically settle based on stated roles. Bets will void if a nominated player fails to play.
Netball Head to Head Bets
ANZ Premiership netball head to head markets mostly focus on simply who will win the match outright. Margins trade quickly due to a game potentially being decided by a single goal run, so things like squad rotation news and shooting percentage stats can be very influential. If a team is missing their best shooter they can often lengthen in price quite sharply, even when favoured against a lower-ranked team.
How to Place a Head to Head Bet on Mobile
Whether you bet on head to head online NZ through a desktop site or a betting app, the process of placing your bet remains broadly the same. Here's how, step-by-step, along with the things that really make or break mobile betting for NZ punters.
Step
1
Select Your Sport and Fixture
Begin by selecting the sport before selecting the exact fixture or event you wish to wager on. This is where mobile functionality starts to become relevant: how quickly you can search and find a fixture to bet on, particularly during a busy match day, can drastically improve the user experience.
Step
2
Check the Market Type
Consider whether the market is two-way or is a draw included first, as this determines how a level result is settled. Market depth, meaning how many level stakes are offered per outcome, is also worth checking here, as some sites offer more detailed markets than others.
Step
3
Confirm the Odds and Enter Your Stake
Double-check the odds associated with your choice, enter your stake and check the estimated return in NZD on the betting slip. When betting live, take note of how frequently live odds are updated, if they do not update quickly enough this will impact on the price you receive.
Step
4
Review and Submit
Read the event rules. Continue with placing your bet. Read your bet slip; this is the last place for you to be sure that your wager and payout, denominated in NZD, is crystal clear.
Player Matchups and Futures Head to Head Markets
Not all head to head markets settle on the day of the match. Season-long and tournament-long head to head markets compare two competitors over an extended period of time, and they have unique risks compared to a single game head to head.
Longer-term head bets include the following:
- Day to day player versus player props.
- Goals scored, yards or touchdowns between two named players.
- Predicting which player finishes with more of a given statistic on the day.
- Finishing higher in a race or tournament.
- Season-long comparisons.
- Which player finishes the season with more tries or touchdowns.
For longer term markets injuries, midseason retirements and the exact wording of the market become critical. Qualifiers for example, a rule that requires both players to play in X number of games to qualify for the bet, can kill a wager you thought had won. Know the terms of settlement before wagering on any futures head to head.
Head Bet Promotions, Free Bets and Terms That Change the Real Value
Free bets for head to head betting that are promoted rarely pay out their advertised value. A stake-not-returned free bet only pays your profit. They don't return your stake: a NZ$20 free bet at 2.00 pays NZ$20, not NZ$40. Bonus cash can be different again, often only withdrawable once requirements are met. How each individual condition affects head to head below.
| Condition | What It Means | Effect on Head to Head Betting |
|---|---|---|
|
Stake not returned |
Free bet pays only the profit, not the original stake |
A NZD 20 free bet at 2.00 on a head to head selection returns NZD 20, not NZD 40 |
|
Minimum odds requirements |
Bonus terms specify a minimum decimal odds threshold to qualify |
Forces you onto shorter or longer head to head prices than you'd otherwise choose |
|
Turnover/wagering conditions |
Bonus funds must be staked a set number of times before withdrawal |
Real value of a head to head win is delayed until turnover is cleared |
|
Expiry windows |
Free bet or bonus credit is voided after a set period |
Unused head to head free bets can lapse before you find a fixture worth using them on |
|
Market exclusions |
Certain markets don't count toward qualifying or turnover |
Some head to head selections may be barred, so the bet you actually want doesn't count |
|
Cash out restrictions |
Early settlement is disabled on bets placed with promotional funds |
A head to head bet placed with a free bet may not be cashable out mid-event |
Closing Guide: Choosing the Right Head to Head Market for the Event
Ideally, the best head to head wager would be one where you agree with the market structure, the sport-specific rules apply and you feel comfortable with the price. This means verifying if it's a two-way or three-way market and how it will pay out for a draw, reviewing the extra time, tie, void and dead heat rules that apply for that particular market and assessing if you feel the NZD price accurately prices in form, injuries, venue and timing before you lay your hard earned money down. Mastering these basics will be far more beneficial than winning one huge prize, as understanding how a market is structured is the difference between knowing what you're betting on and just tossing your money away.
Regardless of sport or stake, always only wager what you can afford to lose, set deposit and time limits for yourself and familiarise yourself with the self-exclusion functions your betting site provides. If at any time gambling ceases to be entertaining and becomes a problem, free confidential counselling is available via the Gambling Helpline on 0800 654 655.
Betting Strategy
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a Head to Head Bet?
A head to head bet is a wager on which team or player finishes first in a head-to-head matchup. It's resolved as a straight win market. Head to head bets are the simplest way to wager on one side without any handicap, totals or multi-leg factors.
What is Head to Head in NRL?
In NRL, head to head is usually your go to match winner market. Available as a two-way selection and also commonly offered as a separate three-way option which includes the draw. The main thing to consider is whether your market includes the draw or goes to regular time only.
Do Head Bets Include Extra Time or Golden Point?
No, unless specified by the market, head to heads normally exclude extra time or golden point, so results can sometimes be settled on a full time score.
What Happens if a Head to Head Bet Ends in a Draw?
A draw has different meanings depending on the market type: if it is a two-way market, then draws are voided or subject to a dead heat rule, if it is a draw no bet market, your stake is refunded and if it is a three-way market, you lose because a draw is its own distinct priced outcome.
Can You Cash Out a Head to Head Bet Before the Event Ends?
Cash out is dependent on operator and individual bet selection, not markets themselves. Head to head markets may or may not offer cash out. When available, cash out value will change during the course of the event, depending on live odds. So, a head to head bet where your side is winning will generally offer better returns for cash out than if your side is losing. Look on the bet slip to see if your bet is eligible for cash out.
